Most of what we fear never happens.
But we obsess anyway—wasting energy on imaginary disasters.
After living through black swans (and reading Taleb), I've built a simple system to separate real risks from noise.
Here’s how it works:
1. When a fear hits, write down:
- The *date* you're predicting it'll happen.
- The *outcome* you expect (or dread).
- Your planned response.
Why?
1. Sanity Over Panic
Fear can be crushing, even if an event isn't likely to affect us.
By writing it down, we process subconscious thoughts and turn it into written hypothesis.
This will cause to think about our reaction and action plan in case of positive and negative scenarios which should calm our mind down.
2. Spot Bias in Data
Track predictions for 3 months.
You'll notice patterns:
- Do you overestimate political chaos? Underestimate tech shifts?
These stats will help you understand the world and adjust behaviour, react better.
3. Self-assessment
See how many times WE were right and wrong.
Helps us make better decisions: trust or distrust our gut.
When a prediction fails, ask:
- Why was I wrong? (Data blind spot? Media hype?)
- How did my fear affect my decisions? (Missed opportunities? Overcaution?)
4. Reflection
What we thought would happen and what happened instead?
How we felt when making a prediction/hearing the news Vs now?
Does this matter now?
I've learned about this when I saw a guy make money by betting "No" (meaning: won't happen) on world events.
Funny how simple yet true it is.
Doesn't cancel black swans though, one day he might bet and lose everything.
(Betting is addictive - avoid)
What you can do instead of betting is - use journal, notes or calendar app.
The goal isn’t perfect foresight—it’s spotting when your gut lies.